The 2024 season opened in Sakhir with the kind of dominant performance that suggests the championship is already over. Verstappen led every lap from pole. Perez followed home for a Red Bull 1-2. Behind them, four teams within seconds of each other, and a comfortable 22-second buffer between Perez and the rest[1].
How big was the gap
Source: FIA timing
22 seconds to Sainz's Ferrari at the flag. 25 to the second Ferrari. The midfield that everyone hoped had closed the gap had not closed it. Red Bull's RB20, the second iteration of the ground-effect generation, started the year roughly where the RB19 had finished it: untouchable.
In context
Source: FIA timing data
Bahrain pole-to-second-place gaps over a decade show why this was unusual but not unprecedented. 2014 hybrid Mercedes opened with a 0.36s pole gap. 2018 Ferrari was 0.66s slower than Mercedes pole. 2024's 0.23s pole gap suggested a closer field than 2018 in qualifying, but the race told a different story.
Tyre strategy
All cars in the top 10 ran two-stop with Soft-Hard-Hard or Medium-Hard-Hard. Verstappen extended his middle stint to maximise track position over Perez, who pitted earlier and found himself stuck behind backmarkers[2]. Pirelli's "managed degradation" strategy was meant to encourage one-stops; the field rejected it and went two-stop universally.
What the data said
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Verstappen avg lap (race) | 1:34.9 |
| Perez avg lap | 1:35.4 |
| Sainz avg lap | 1:35.8 |
| Verstappen sector 2 (avg) | 0.31s clear of field |
| DRS effectiveness | High (long straight) |
Verstappen was 0.31 seconds per lap clear of the next-fastest in sector 2 alone. Over 57 laps that is the entire 22-second margin.
The bigger problem
Mercedes had a difficult day. The W15 was meant to be a clean break from the W13 and W14, both of which suffered from porpoising and bouncing. Russell finished 5th, 46 seconds behind. Hamilton retired with technical issues. The car has the worst race pace of the top-four teams.
Aston Martin, who finished 4th in the Constructors' last year, were nowhere. Alonso made up for the car's deficiencies and finished 9th. Stroll, in the same machinery, was 17th[3].
Looking ahead
Saudi Arabia would confirm everything Bahrain suggested: Red Bull is in a class of one, Ferrari is the second-fastest, McLaren is upgrading their way into contention, Mercedes is starting from behind. The 2024 season would not match this script forever, but the opening round told the story honestly.
Bahrain 2024 is the data point I keep coming back to when I write about the 2024 season. The championship was over by lap 1. The interest, as the year went on, would be how far the rest of the field could close the gap.
About the data
A note on what the numbers in this post represent so you can read them with the right confidence:
- "My own bench" rows are personal measurements on my own hardware. They are honest about my setup and reproducible there, but they should not be treated as universal benchmark scores.
- Benchmark numbers attributed to public sources (Geekbench Browser, DXOMARK, NotebookCheck, FIA timing) are illustrative, the trend is what matters, not the third decimal place. Cross-check against the source for anything you would act on financially.
- Client outcomes and ROI percentages in business-focused posts are anonymised composites drawn from my own consulting work. Real numbers, real direction, sanitised so individual clients are not identifiable.
- Foldable crease-depth and similar engineering measurements are estimates pulled from teardown reports and reviewer claims; manufacturers do not publish these directly.
- Forecasts and "what I bet" lines are exactly that, opinions, not predictions with a track record yet.
If you spot a number that contradicts a source you trust, tell me, I would rather correct it than be the chart that was off by 6 percent and pretended otherwise.